LTL freight and intermodal are getting a second look as truckload gets tighter and more expensive. Freight is not growing much, but trucks are leaving the market, so shippers with smaller loads or long lanes are weighing other modes. Here is what four recent sources say, where the squeeze is worst, and what a shipper can do about it before year-end.
Fewer trucks, not more freight, are tightening truckload
Truck News, citing the American Trucking Associations, wrote on Oct. 8 that the recovery is driven by shrinking capacity, not growing demand. The August numbers it cites show both spot and contract rates up from a year earlier, while the number of contract loads barely moved. It points to a second wave of capacity leaving: stricter driver enforcement, English-proficiency violations, closed training schools and high diesel. ATA’s Lindsay Bur called it exactly what a supply-side recovery looks like. If the driver pool keeps getting trimmed, a shipper should plan for lasting tightness. See Truck News on the freight market rebalancing as capacity shrinks.
Where trucks are tightest
FreightWaves’ SONAR chart of the week, published Oct. 10, shows the squeeze is uneven. In the Northwest, outright load rejections jumped on fall produce harvests, and refrigerated freight was hit hardest. Analyst Zach Strickland expects that spike to fade when harvest ends. The Midwest, the largest freight region, was close to one in five loads rejected, with dry van rejections well above last year, and he calls that a longer-term signal. A shipper loading in the Northwest can expect some relief after the season. One loading in the Midwest should plan for tight trucks well into winter. See FreightWaves on the two tightest regions.
LTL is picking up freight from truckload
C.H. Robinson’s October report, published Oct. 1, says LTL has recovered steadily while truckload tightened, and that some freight is moving back to LTL as truckload costs rise. LTL carriers are holding prices instead of cutting to win freight, are more selective, and fuel surcharges are lifting costs. C.H. Robinson expects LTL demand to grow in October and capacity to tighten gradually through year-end rather than crunch. For a shipper with smaller shipments, that makes LTL worth a look, but not a bargain. The same report says carriers are not cutting prices to win freight, so the savings case should be checked quote by quote, with fuel charges counted in. See the C.H. Robinson LTL update.
Intermodal is a capacity answer on long lanes
In the same series, C.H. Robinson says domestic intermodal volumes stayed well above their historical averages through September, and it calls intermodal a strategic capacity solution rather than only a lower-cost option. Capacity is tight in California, Texas, Salt Lake City and Chicago, and freight shifting to rail is pressing lanes of roughly 550 to 1,500 miles, with chassis shortages on the East Coast. For 2027 contracts, it expects steady to higher pricing, with West Coast origins the most constrained. See the C.H. Robinson intermodal and ports update.
What this means for you
- If you ship smaller loads: Price LTL next to truckload, book early, and expect firm LTL pricing and fuel charges through year-end.
- If you ship long lanes: Ask whether intermodal can give you dependable capacity, and lock equipment early where rail space is tightest.
- If you load in the Midwest: Plan for tight trucks into winter, whatever mode you choose.
- If you are planning 2027 freight: Raise equipment and capacity commitments early, since pricing is expected to hold steady or rise.
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