Long-haul dry van backup carriers are where a routing guide gets tested. October’s freight data shows more loads falling through to the bottom of the guide, and the pain is not spread evenly across lanes.
What route-guide failures measure
A route-guide failure is a load that no preferred carrier accepted. According to C.H. Robinson’s October 2026 Edge Report, published Oct 1, failures fell from a summer peak of 7.5% to nearly 5%, then rose above 6% in recent weeks. That is still well above prior years.
Carriers C.H. Robinson surveyed report steady demand and elevated tender rejections. That fits the picture: freight is not surging, but trucks are not waiting on tenders either.
For a shipper, the practical meaning is that a routing guide that worked last year may be stretched now. A guide with a strong first choice and thin backups looks fine until the first choice turns a tender down, and then the load lands on whoever is next. The rise above 6% says that is happening more often than it did a few months ago, even though the number has not returned to its summer peak.
Distance changes everything
Average route-guide depth, which is how far down the guide a load goes before someone takes it, was 1.35 in August. Hauls under 400 miles averaged 1.25. Hauls over 600 miles averaged 1.51.
A shipper can read that plainly. The longer the haul, the more often the first choice says no, and the more the second and third choices matter. A carrier on shorter lanes can read it the other way: loads under 400 miles are accepted nearer the top of the guide, so contract freight on those lanes is more likely to stay put.
The figures are August averages, so treat them as a guide to the pattern rather than a forecast for any single lane. The pattern itself is clear: depth grows with distance. Long-haul freight on a single preferred carrier is where backup coverage matters most.
Why the market stays tight
The American Trucking Associations’ tonnage index rose 0.8% in September and was flat compared with a year earlier, per The Trucker. ATA chief economist Bob Costello said tonnage is soft but capacity is still contracting. With fewer trucks and steady demand, carriers can be choosy about which tenders they take.
That is the context for the rise in failures. It is not a collapse in the market; ATA calls tonnage soft. It is a market where carriers have options, and a shipper’s preferred carrier may use them on the longest, least convenient hauls first. Until capacity returns, expect long-haul tender acceptance to stay a point of attention rather than a given.
Fuel adds another moving part
When a load does fall to a backup, the quote may come back priced differently. The U.S. Energy Information Administration shows on-highway diesel up about 10 cents the week of Oct 19 from the week before. Check whether a backup quote prices fuel through the surcharge or inside the all-in rate.
A backup carrier’s price is often compared with the primary’s in a hurry, on a load that has already been turned down once. That is the worst time to discover the two quotes treat fuel differently. Agreeing in advance how fuel is shown, separately or built in, keeps the comparison clean when the diesel reading moves from one week to the next.
What this means for you
- Find your long-haul lanes and see how many preferred carriers you have on each.
- Add a vetted backup carrier on lanes over 600 miles before you need one.
- Keep short-haul contract freight steady; it is where tender acceptance holds up better.
- Ask whether a backup quote prices fuel the same way as your primary.
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